(Revised
02-03-04)
ODDS OF SHOOTING AT OR
BELOW YOUR HANDICAP
The odds are that
you have played in a tournament where you have shot one of your best
scores in a long time, yet still didn’t win one of the prizes
someone else played a better round. Most of us have experienced this
situation and if you are like a lot of us, you probably complained
about the “sandbaggers” that beat you.
Yes,
there are players who manipulate their handicaps, but the vast
majority of amateur golfers have accurate handicaps. So, what are
the odds that an exceptional round is just that and not a common
occurrence? Listed below you will find a chart which gives the odds
of shooting at or below your handicap. When you examine the chart
you will notice that the higher handicapped golfer has a much
greater chance of shooting an extremely low net score, but their
chances of shooting a high net score is also much greater.
The net
differential is the amount of strokes that the player shoots below
the USGA Course Rating. For example: A player who has a course
handicap of 13 shoots a core of 75 on a golf course with a USGA
Course Rating of 70.0. his net score of 62 gives him a net
differential of -8. (Determined by subtracting course handicap of 13
from his score of 75 to arrive a t 62 and then subtracting the net
score of 62 from the USGA Course Rating of 70.0). The odds that
this 13 handicap will shoot that low is 1,670 to 1. note that 1000
to 1 generally represents a lifetime of golf, or for a golfer, who
post 100 rounds a year, it represents a decade of golf.
Before
we explore ways to make handicaps more fair and accurate, a brief
explanation of the USGA Handicap System is in order.
*Your handicap is based upon your best 10 differentials in
you last 20 scores, therefore your handicap is based upon your
potential rather then your average scores.
*The average golfer will average three strokes higher then
his handicap.
*The average golfer’s best score in his last 20 rounds will
only be two strokes better then his handicap.
*The average golfer is expected to play to his handicap or
below only about 25% of the time.Once a golfer shoots more then one
or two of these odd-defying net scores, the home club handicap
committee should seriously consider adjusting the golfer’s handicap
down to reflect the true ability of the golfer. Listed below are
some ideas that all clubs may use to insure that handicaps are
accurate and fairly earned:
*Make sure that the handicap committee at the club is active
and is reviewing the handicaps of its members on a regular basis.
*Make sure that the handicaps used in tournament play are the
most current and up to date handicap for competitors. With more then
95% of the members of the Washington State and Oregon Golf
Associations on the Electronic Option, updating handicaps on the day
before a tournament is easier then ever.
*Play USGA “Summer Rules” whenever possible. All courses
have been rated under the assumption that “ Summer Rules” are in
effect. Allowing competitors to bump the ball will usually lead to
lower scores than normal. Believe or not, playing “ Winter Rules”
does not protect damage or immature turf. In actuality. When you
play “Wnter Rules”, you invariably move your ball to the best grass
and eventually destroy the good grass.
*Tournament committees should insure that all acceptable
scores are returned and posted. You may either put tournament
score-posting sheet in the coring area, so that the competitors can
post their ESC score in the box by their name, or you can use the
USGA Tournament Pairing Program to calculate and post their scores.
Whatever you decide, upon completion of the tournament, the
Committee should post all the scores for the competitors. This will
insure that the scores are posted properly.
Listed above are only some of the steps that can be taken to
insure that all handicaps are fairly earned and accurate. It’s up
to all of us to maintain the integrity of the USGA Handicap System.
ODDS OF SHOOTING AT OR BELOW HANDICAP
COURSE HANDICAP
NET DIFFERENTIAL 0-5
6-12 13-21 22-30 31-PLUS
0 10:1 11:1
12:1 13:1 15:1
-1 19:1 20:1 20:1
21:1 21:1
-2 38:1 39:1 40:1
33:1 29:1
-3 92:1 88:1 86:1
52:1 42:1
-4 250:1 215:1 176:1
91:1 61:1
-5 730:1 570:1 375:1
160:1 85:1
-6
1190:1 970:1 780:1
300:1 145:1
-7
2660:1 1640:1 1070:1
570:1 225:1
-8
34500:1 5320:1 1670:1
850:1 380:1
-9
785000:1 41650:1 3960:1
1200:1 610:1
-10
1250000:1 843000:1 37000:1 1650:1
874.1
Information
courtesy of WSGA
